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Grayrock Projects Higher Defaults in the 2nd half of 2025

DALLAS, June 26, 2025 – Grayrock Global, a leader in liquid credit income strategies, announced its 2025 Midyear Outlook for Defaults, Recoveries, and Returns from U.S. Private Credit Strategies.

Highlights from the Grayrock report include:

  • Defaults Rates may Increase to 9% in the 2nd half of 2025 driven by credit stress.  
  • Recovery Rates may Decline to 65% due to Covenant-Lite loans.  
  • Senior Secured Loans Could Still Generate 6% Yields After Net Losses.
  • Technology and Healthcare Sectors Expected to Fare Better due to Growth.

Grayrock believes there is approximately $2.6 trillion in corporate debt expected to mature in 2025 to 2029, which could lead to defaults – if refinancing conditions remain tight.

Further, geopolitical tensions and tariffs may continue to pressure speculative grade loan issuers’ profit margins and cash flows, which could lead to defaults.

To listen to the Alternative Funds Week podcast that discusses the Report,  please click:  https://open.spotify.com/episode/6Ta4jtrH9NC53dCDOsVdX0

To request the Grayrock Global 2025 Midyear report, please email info@grayrockglobal.com

For more information, please visit https://grayrockglobal.com/ or contact info@grayrockglobal.com.

About Grayrock Global™

We help institutions achieve their long-term financial goals through specialized liquid credit income strategies. Grayrock Global offers private funds, sub-advisory, separately managed accounts, and consulting services. Eligible clients are Qualified Clients as per SEC Rule 205-3. Our liquid credit income strategies seek attractive risk-adjusted total returns with a focus on high current income, and an opportunity for capital appreciation and monthly liquidity.     © Grayrock Global, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer

The information set forth in this commentary is estimated and contains forward-looking statements that involve numerous risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ. The information may change without notice. The commentary is not a research report. The information is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice. Nothing in the commentary is a solicitation of securities which may only be done through a private placement memorandum and in jurisdictions where permissible. Data contained herein is estimated and obtained from what we consider to be reliable sources; however, it is incomplete, and projections may change without further notice.

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